From The Economist print edition
Why are prices soaring?
豬肉價(jià)格為何飛漲?
WHILE many China-watchers fret about the consequences of a collapse of China's stock market, Wen Jiabao, the prime minister, seems more worried about the risk of social unrest as a result of the rocketing price of pork. A 50% rise in the average nationwide price over the past year is causing squeals of alarm. Last week Mr Wen went so far as to visit a farm to show he is taking the issue seriously.
正當(dāng)眾多中國(guó)觀察家為中國(guó)股市崩盤的后果不堪設(shè)想而憂心忡忡之時(shí)，溫家寶總理卻似乎更擔(dān)心暴漲的豬肉價(jià)格可能會(huì)造成社會(huì)不穩(wěn)定。過(guò)去一年全國(guó)平均肉價(jià)50%的增長(zhǎng)引起了恐慌。上周，溫先生甚至視察了一家農(nóng)場(chǎng)，以此表明他對(duì)這一問(wèn)題非常重視。
Mr Wen promised that the government would act to ensure adequate supplies of pork; if necessary, to stabilise prices it can release stocks from its strategic reserves of both frozen pork and live pigs. Pork is China's staple meat. The average person eats more pork than in any country other than Germany. But it accounts for almost 4% of China's consumer-price basket, against less than 1% in Germany. Rising pork prices could therefore push up China's inflation rate over coming months. Jiming Ha, chief economist at China International Capital Corporation, estimates that inflation will rise to 3.4% in May, from 3% in April.
溫先生承諾，政府會(huì)采取行動(dòng)，確保豬肉的足量供應(yīng);如果必要，政府還可動(dòng)用凍豬肉和生豬的戰(zhàn)略儲(chǔ)備來(lái)穩(wěn)定肉價(jià)。豬肉是中國(guó)的主要肉食品，一般人的豬肉消費(fèi)量比除德國(guó)外的任何一個(gè)國(guó)家都要多。但與德國(guó)不到1%相比，豬肉在中國(guó)占菜籃子總價(jià)近4%，。因此，未來(lái)幾個(gè)月里，上漲的豬肉價(jià)格會(huì)推動(dòng)中國(guó)通脹率的上升。中國(guó)國(guó)際金融有限公司的首席經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家Jiming Ha估計(jì)，通貨膨脹將從4月份的3%升至5月份的3.4%。
Economists are scratching their heads to explain the price jump. Some blame it on blue-ear, a contagious disease which may have killed 18,000 or 20m pigs, depending on whom you believe. Others say the main cause is the surge in global grain prices, which have increased the cost of feed for pigs. It is not only the Chinese who are paying more for their pork. Capital Economics, a London-based economics firm, points out that American pork prices have also jumped by more than 50% over the past year.
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